Advancing Climate Attribution: Insights from the Melamchi Flood of 2021

On December 24, 2024, the Climate Attribution Research Team at the Institute for Study and Development Worldwide (IFSD) held a virtual workshop to discuss their ongoing analysis of the catastrophic Melamchi flood of 2021. This flood event was one of the most devastating in recent years, serving as an important case study to explore the complex interplay of climatic, socio-economic, and geomorphic factors. The workshop focused on critically assessing the progress, refining analysis methods, and creating a path forward for impactful research. It brought together a mix of early, mid, and senior researchers, providing valuable learning opportunities across different experience levels.

Dr Hemant Ojha initiated the conversation by emphasising the workshop’s broader goal: contributing to a scientific paper that advances the global discourse on Loss and Damage (L&D) by linking climate science with actionable policy. His remarks highlighted the need to understand the diverse causes and impacts of the Melamchi flood, setting the tone for productive discussions among participants.

IFSD researchers Kenisha Shrestha and Priyanka Gurung then presented the paper’s outline, providing an overview of the case study’s context and objectives. They highlighted the flood’s severe impacts and the urgent need for evidence-based insights. They introduced three critical questions central to the paper:

  1. To what extent can the 2021 Melamchi flood be attributed to climate change?
  2. How do climatic factors interact with socio-economic and geomorphic variables to exacerbate flood impacts?
  3. What implications do these findings have for climate finance mechanisms and the emerging global framework for L&D?

These questions aim to bridge the gap between science and policy, providing actionable insights for understanding and addressing climate-induced disasters in vulnerable regions.

Based on these questions, the study has the following objectives:

  1. To assess the roles of climatic, geomorphic, and socio-economic factors and conduct deep analysis to determine the extent to which climate change contributed to the Melamchi flood. 

  2. To make the research replicable and globally relevant, especially for data-poor regions. 

  3. To connect findings to L&D frameworks and climate finance mechanisms to shape policy implications.

This was followed by an engaging discussion where participants shared diverse insights, building on the preliminary findings. These findings revealed a direct link between climate variability and increased landslide susceptibility, further intensified by deforestation and land-use changes. Sneha Rai, a Research Officer at Prakriti Resources Centre (PRC), shared “These dynamics not only underscore the role of climatic factors but also reveal how human-induced changes, such as deforestation and the expansion of barren land, amplify disaster risks.” Rakesh Kayastha, the lead author, stressed integrating hydrological and socio-economic modelling, explaining, “We can explore how extreme temperature shifts, glacial melt, and rainfall could have contributed to this event.”

The team also discussed making the methodology replicable for flood-prone regions globally. Dr Bandita Mainali emphasised adopting counterfactual analysis, stating, “Simulating flood events with and without human interference, alongside trend analysis of extreme rainfall and glacial melt, can help quantify climate change’s role.” Additional suggestions also included integrating participatory knowledge and advanced climate models to quantify climate change’s contribution, particularly through triangulating hydrological data with community insights from older residents on long-term observations of land use and weather patterns.

Kabin Maharjan further highlighted the need for flexible hydrological models based on data availability and reliability. Researchers identified the importance of assessing socio-economic implications, particularly how findings could shape climate finance and resilience-building strategies. Dr Ojha emphasised, “This study is not about understanding the past; it’s about informing future strategies for resilience and justice in vulnerable regions.”

Overall, the workshop advanced research on the Melamchi flood of 2021 by bringing together diverse perspectives and fostering collaborative dialogue. The team refined the research methodology and addressed key questions about the roles of climate change, socio-economic factors, and geomorphology, laying the foundation for actionable insights that can inform climate finance mechanisms and resilience strategies. The clear action points outlined for the next phase of the research ensure that the study will bridge the gap between scientific understanding and policy, contributing to contextually grounded climate adaptation and justice for vulnerable regions.

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