By Jagannath Adhikari | May 2024
In late December 2023, I was close to the Dhaulagiri mountain range in central Himalayan region. I was surprised to see how little snow there was, even at the peak of winter. This observation aligned with a concern that people had expressed during a discussion in Pokhara, Nepal, earlier in the year about the snowy Himalayas turning into black mountains. Similarly, in early January 2024, I visited Mustang, Nepal – a trans-Himalayan region adjoining Tibet/China – and witnessed the devastating aftermath of the flash flood that occurred on 13 August 2023 in Kagbeni village (2,800 meters altitude) (Dhakal, 2023). Mustang including Kagbeni is a rain-shadow area with very little rainfall, but snowfall is common. However, in recent years, the area has experienced torrential rainfall during every monsoon season – the main impact of climate change. As this area is also in a high-altitude desert area characterised by loose and sandy soil, landslides have now become common because of the heavy rainfall.
The flood and landslide that hit Kagbeni in August 2023 caused significant damage. It destroyed 29 houses, swept away a motorable bridge, four permanent and temporary bridges and 12 vehicles, and displaced more than 150 people (Khadka, 2023). The estimated total cost of destruction from this disaster was approximately USD 7.4 million(Dhakal, 2023). For the people of the village, such a scale of devastation was never expected, and they continue to feel helpless as they are unsure about what can be done to reduce rainfall and prevent devastating floods and landslides. Despite their efforts to adapt, it seems impossible from their side to prevent such disasters, without adequate financial support.
Evidence of climate change
The anomalies observed in the climatic patterns in the Himalayas are, no doubt, linked to human-induced climate change. The Himalayas are one of the hotspots of climate change where the temperature is rising faster than the global average. For example, climate change has led to accelerated warming of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau at a rate of 0.2 °C per decade from 1951 to 2014, and high-elevation areas underwent amplified warming at a rate of about 0.5 °C per decade (Sabin et al., 2020). Another study showed that the temperature has increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius in the area, which is more than double that of the global average leading to the disappearance of many smaller glaciers (Carney, 2016).
Consequently, climate change impacts are manifesting at an alarming rate. Scientists estimate that the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) could lose up to 75 percent of their volume by the end of the century leading to severe flooding and water shortages for the nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of the rivers that originate from the mountains. Similarly, a recent study by ICIMOD further revealed that 200 glacier lakes across these mountains are deemed dangerous and there could be a rapid increase in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) by the end of the century (ICIMOD, 2023; IPCC, 2023). Additonally, flash floods and avalanches will become more frequent and intense if greenhouse gases are not sharply reduced.
Escalating losses and damages
During a discussion in Pokhara, people expressed their concerns about how the melting snow is impacting their lives and it was clear that they have experienced losses in both economic and non-economic sense. The uncertainty of rainfall, growing insects and pests, and frequent disasters such as landslides and droughts have led to significant economic impacts. On the other hand, the loss of a sense of spirituality (as the Himalayas are considered to have spiritual value) and the trauma of being compelled to leave their homes because of landslides and floods were also present.
Apart from disasters like floods and landslides in the Himalayan region like Mustang, people living there perceive that almost two-thirds of the snow has now disappeared from the Himalayas, and even the traditionally cold winter months like January and February are now relatively warmer. This shift in temperatures has led to new diseases infecting their crops, exacerbated by higher levels of rain in this alpine region. Crops like apples, which provided them with a good income in the past, are now impacted by a disease locally called Chhayap Rog – which is like a fungus that quickly destroys the fruit. Consequently, income from apple farming has sharply declined, adding economic challenges to the local communities.
Reaching limits to adaptation
Due to increased rainfall in the area, the traditional flat mud roofs are not effective for protection. Such roofs were made traditionally in the context of rain-less-ness. Previously, snow would gather on these roofs providing a layer of protection to the house and then it would be removed the next day without any urgency. But nowadays, rain destroys the mud roofs causing water to leak into the wooden beams and interior of the houses, leading to structural damage to their property. As a result, people are now being forced to build new houses with a different roof system using zinc sheets and adopting the pagoda design, an investment which only wealthier people can afford. However, the pressing questions remain: who will assist in repairing poorer people’s dwellings after they have been damaged? What about the people’s existing situation if their dwellings are destroyed? People were deeply worried about the recurring events of heavy rainfall and were considering migrating to other places. However, again only wealthier households will have the resources to do so and in fact, many of them have relocated to safer urban areas taking their wealth with them.
Additionally, the main source of water in these regions is snow, which would previously remain throughout the year, and was supplied as water for drinking, irrigation, and other household uses. However, with less snowfall nowadays, water scarcity is increasing and hampering the health, food production, and livelihoods of people. Water scarcity has also forced some people to migrate to new locations. The rapid decline in local food production has affected the local agro-ecosystem, further making it difficult to develop resilient farming systems.
Given this situation, the public, scientists, and policy makers believe that such disasters are beyond their control and the losses and damages from them are unavoidable, regardless of the continuous efforts made to adapt unless there is significant financial support to build strong infrastructures including strong houses in vulnerable locations. So, this essentially means these communities have exceeded both the soft limits (lack of financial support) and hard limits (the inevitability of disasters triggered by climate change impact) of adaptation to climate change (IPCC, 2023). These communities are going through these predicaments without adequate resources to escape the losses and damages, which is now inevitable because of climate change. This essentially means that financial support to address losses and damages from climate change is the only option for them.
(Image source: Jagannath Adhikari)
Addressing losses and damages
My visit to Nepal and the Himalayan region coincided with the COP28 meeting in Dubai. I followed this global event from a distance and felt hopeful and somewhat happy when the opening day agreed to establish the much awaited and needed ‘Loss and Damage Fund’. However, only about USD700 million was pledged to this Fund– which is just 0.2% of the total fund required (Richards & Jowahir, 2023). It was surely disheartening to see such a meagre contribution to this Fund. Furthermore, there is growing uncertainty about whether the small amount pledged for the Fund would even be materialised. This certainly signals a persistent indifference to the plight of the most climate-vulnerable communities. vulnerable communities.
Australia has set an example by showing a possible approach by facilitating the migration of people affected by climate change to Australia. When Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Tuvalu, he realised the impact of climate change and said, “developed nations have a responsibility to provide assistance” to countries like Tuvalu that are deeply impacted by climate change.” He then immediately announced that Australia would implement a special visa arrangement to allow Tuvaluans to work, study, and live in Australia. The treaty allows up to 280 Tuvaluans (from a population of around 11,200) to migrate to Australia each year – presumably on a permanent basis. Upon arrival, they will be able to access Australian education, health care, income, and family support. This could provide them both legal and psychological security. On the other hand, Australia is still hesitant to call this climate change-induced refugee migration for the fear that there could be more responsibilities and demands. As many places, especially Pacific nations, are affected similarly, there could be more demands taking the Tuvalu case as a precedent (McAdams, n.d.).
Similar to the small step that Australia plans to undertake, it is important for other developed countries to also recognise the historical injustice that they have contributed to by causing climate change. They also should develop plans and initiatives aimed at directly providing support to vulnerable developing countries. Mustang communities – and many in the Himalayan region as well downstream – are in need of urgent and context-specific targeted financial resources to recover from losses and damages caused by global climate change. Mustang communities are helpless as they are unsure of how to prevent these disasters or even adapt to them. Their vulnerability is exacerbated by limited resources, particularly among low-income households who have no capability to modify infrastructure such as resilient roofs or relocate to safer areas. In this context, more financial support should be provided by the developed nations. Then only can these communities get justice and feel secure in their communities.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this blog are of the author and do not reflect the positions and views of the organisations with which the author is affiliated or those of the publisher. The author and publisher do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by any errors or omission or any other cause associated with this blog.
References
- Carney, M. (2016). Crisis on high. ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-25/climate-change-the-third-pole-under-threat/7657672
- Dhakal, T. (2023). Why floods beyond our imagination hit Nepalese
- Himalayan Town. https://www.globalissues.org/news/2023/09/26/34864
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). AR6 Synthesis Report:
- Climate Change 2023. IPCC. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). (2023). Water, ice, society, and ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: An outlook. ICIMOD. https://doi.org/10.53055/icimod.1028
- Khadka, G. (2023). Kagbeni flood displaces scores of people in Mustang. The Kathmandu Post. https://kathmandupost.com/gandaki-province/2023/08/14/flood-washes-away-10-houses-in-kagbeni
- McAdams, J. (n.d.). Australia’s offer of climate migration to Tuvalu residents is groundbreaking – and could be a lifeline across the Pacific. UNSW Sites. https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2023/11/australia-s-offer-of-climate-migration-to-tuvalu-residents-is-gr
- Richards, J., & Jowahir, T. (2023). The Loss and Damage Fund and Pledges at COP28:
- Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day? Or to the annual earnings of a megastar footballer? https://www.lossanddamagecollaboration.org/pages/the-loss-and-damage-fund-and-pledges-at-cop28-shall-i-compare-thee-to-a-summers-day-or-to-the-annual-earnings-of-a-megastar-footballer
- Sabin, T. P., Krishnan, R., Vellore, R., Priya, P., Borgaonkar, H. P., Singh, B. B., & Sagar,
- A. (2020). Climate change over the Himalayas. In Springer eBooks (pp. 207–222). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_11
